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2018年02月26日 09:30:50来源:兰州晨报


  • DOES raising taxes on those who are doing well economically stifle growth and slow down the recovery? That depends on how rich people behave when their taxes rise. Do they work less when they are allowed to keep a smaller chunk of their income? Do they move their money offshore? Do they take a larger share of their earnings in forms that are more lightly taxed? Economists have looked at the effects of many past changes in tax rates to try to answer such questions.对富人增税是否会抑制经济增长,延缓复苏?这取决于富人在增税后的行为态度。若税后收入缩水,他们是否会因此减少工作量?将家产移至海外?抑或更多地通过赋税较低的形式获取收入?为了解答上述问题,经济学家对过去诸多税率政策变化的收效作出研究。Martin Feldstein, a Harvard economist, found that the taxable income of the rich adjusted dollar-for-dollar with tax rates when America cut its highest tax rate from 50% to 28% in 1986, so that tax revenues stayed the same. This would suggest that raising top tax rates is likely to produce little extra revenue, while distorting economic behaviour further. But others have found that this adjustment in taxable income is driven largely by people altering when and how they take their income in order to minimise their tax burden. For instance, there was a big fall in taxable income after tax rates rose in 1993; but most of this seems to have come from a few rich people hurrying to cash in their stock options before taxes rose.哈佛经济学家马丁;费尔德斯坦指出,1986年美国将税率上限由50%下调至28%,与之相应的富人应税收入也作出等额调整,总税收与往年持平。这就意味着提高税率上限可能不会带来多少额外收益,反倒进一步扭曲经济行为。但是,还有一些经济学家认为,对应税收入的调整主要是应富人的需求--他们通过调整获取收入的时间与方式,使赋税达到最低。举例来说,1993年税率上升后,应税收入大幅下降;这很大程度上是因为一些富人此前赶着在税率调高前兑现股票期权。Thomas Piketty of the Paris School of Economics, Emmanuel Saez of the University of California, Berkeley, and Stefanie Stantcheva of MIT argue in a new paper that this is why few studies have been able to show any significant long-term effect from raising top tax rates. But such avoidance, they say, is merely a symptom of a poorly designed tax system. It is silly to have a high tax rate while simultaneously giving people many ways to avoid paying it. So the first task of tax reformers must be to minimise such opportunities by having a broader tax base, better enforcement and similar tax rates for different kinds of income.巴黎经济学院的托马斯;皮凯迪,加州大学伯克利分校的伊曼纽尔;赛斯和麻省理工的斯蒂芬妮;斯坦特切娃在最新发表的论文中谈到,正是由于富人对税后利益最大化的需求导致对应税收入的调整,使得至今鲜有研究表明提高税率上限会造成任何深远影响。但他们也认为,富人的避税行径不过是税制系统设计糟糕的表现。设置高税率的同时提供诸多避开它的方法,不可谓不愚蠢。因此,税制改革者的首要任务务必是使避税之人毫无可乘之机。手段包括:扩大税基,加强管制,对不同形式的收入设置相当的税率。That is relatively uncontroversial. But their other finding is likely to raise a few eyebrows. They reckon that if the tax system were reformed to make evasion impossible, the top tax rate might be able to rise to as much as 83%;that is, to levels last seen in the 1960s;without hurting the economy. This is because people do not seem greatly to adjust how much they work when tax rates change. Higher top rates may also discourage big earners from spending too much of their time trying to bargain for a larger share of the overall pie.前述相对来说争议不大。但他们的另一个研究结果可能会让人狐疑好一阵子。据这些专家估计,若改革后的税制要完全杜绝避税,税率上限可以调高至83%(上一次出现如此高的税率还在20世纪60年代)都不会阻碍经济发展,因为人们不大可能在税率变化后调整工作量。面对更高的税率,富人也不会再花大力气分一杯更大的羹。Now all that remains is to remove the loopholes. On past experience, Americarsquo;s rich need not lose sleep over that.现在剩下要做的是堵住法律漏洞。从以往的 经验看,富人们无须失眠。201202/169863
  • Science and technology科学和技术Allergy to wine红酒过敏The oenophiles lament酒鬼们的烦恼An explanation for a most unfortunate condition.这件不幸的事现在有解释了。ONE of life’s sadder statistics is that about 8% of people get sneezy and stuffy-headed after drinking wine.这世上有一个统计数据令人伤心,那就是大约有8%的人在饮用红酒以后会产生打喷嚏和头昏脑涨的症状。This mild allergic reaction is often blamed on preservative chemicals called sulphites, but they are responsible for only an eighth of cases.这种轻微过敏反应常常和作为防腐添加剂的亚硫酸盐有关联。The reason for the rest is obscure. Giuseppe Palmisano of the University of Southern Denmark, however, thinks he knows the answer.但是此类过敏症况只有1/8的情况是由亚硫酸盐造成的,其他7/8的情况一直病因不明。不过南丹麦大学的Giuseppe Palmisano认为他搞明白这是怎么回事了。As he and his colleagues report in the Journal of Proteome Research, the culprits are glycoproteins—compounds composed, as their name suggests, of sugar and protein. That is not a complete surprise.他和他的团队在蛋白组学研究期刊上发表文章称,罪魁祸首是糖蛋白顾名思义,就是由糖类和蛋白质组成的一类蛋白质。Glycoproteins are implicated in several other allergies.这倒也不算意外。糖蛋白也涉及其他的过敏症。But Dr Palmisano thinks he has identified the ones specific to wine.不过Palmisano士认为他找到了与红酒过敏特定相关的那几个糖蛋白。To do so he started with a cheeky little chardonnay, treated it with ice-cold trichloroacetic acid and ethanol to precipitate any glycoproteins, then digested those glycoproteins into smaller molecules called peptides that can be analysed by mass spectroscopy.为了找到这个过敏原,Palmisano士将一些白葡萄酒用冰凉的三氯乙酸和酒精处理以沉淀出所有的糖蛋白,之后将它们消化成叫做多肽的小分子以便用质谱仪分析。He screened the results against a database of known allergenic proteins. Three stood out.他拿检查结果和已知过敏原的数据库对比。有三个糖蛋白引入眼帘,One is similar to allergenic proteins found in latex and pears.其中一个过敏性蛋白相似,该蛋白可以再乳胶和梨中发现;Another looks like a second latex protein and an olive protein, both known allergens.第二个与另一个乳胶蛋白以及一个橄榄蛋白相似,这两个蛋白也是已知的过敏原;The third resembles one of the most rampant allergens of them all, a ragweed protein that causes hay fever.第三个与造成花粉过敏的豚草蛋白类似,该蛋白可说是过敏原里最厉害的一个了。Whether winemakers will be able to act on this knowledge is moot.酿酒商们会不会因为这个发现而改进产品这未有可知。But it might be possible to tweak the production process to reduce the presence of the allergens.不过通过调节生产流程来减少过敏原的产生倒是很有可能的。In any case, you can now blame that stuffy feeling that comes after drinking on glycoproteins, not alcohol. Honest.不管怎么说,说真的,下次你又喝红酒头疼的时候就不用怪酒了,应该怪糖蛋白么。 /201302/225920
  • Business.商业。Clear Channel and radio broadcasting.清晰频道通信公司与无线电广播。Come stream with me.跟我去发展流式音频吧。Is there money in digital radio?数字广播有钱可赚吗?FRANK SINATRA knew he was getting a raw deal. He could sing but he was not much of a songwriter, so he never saw a cent when most of his 300 or so singles were played on American radio. He spent years fruitlessly lobbying Congress to change a 1909 royalties law, which requires radio broadcasters to pay composers but not performers. Broadcasters-a more formidable lobby than artists or record labels-have long fought any change, arguing that airtime gives singers free publicity. But this month the artists and labels have had some good news.弗兰克·辛纳特拉(FRANK SINATRA)知道自己受到的待遇不公正。他歌唱得好,但写歌不在行;因此,虽然他大约300首单曲中的大部分在美国广播电台播放,他却从来没拿到过一分钱。一项1909年的版权使用费法要求电台对歌曲作者付款,但不必对歌者付款。他多年游说国会修改这项法律,但毫无成效。广播公司的游说比艺术家或唱片公司更强大;他们长期以来反对对这项法律的任何修改,理由是广播免费宣传了歌唱家。但本月歌手与唱片公司终于听到了些好消息。On June 5th Clear Channel Communications, Americas largest radio broadcaster, announced a deal with Big Machine, a country-music label, to pay performance royalties on all its radio channels, terrestrial (ie, over the air) and digital. The plan is for Clear Channel to pay the label and its artists, who include Taylor Swift and Tim McGraw, a cut of its advertising revenue.美国最大的广播公司清晰频道(Clear Channel Communications)6 月5日宣布与一家乡村音乐唱片公司大机器(Big Machine)达成协议,将为它播出的所有大机器名下的歌曲演出付费,无论歌曲是由地面频道或数字频道播出。根据该计划,清晰频道将按广告收入比例向大机器及它旗下的艺术家付费,其中包括泰勒·斯威夫特和蒂姆·麦克罗(Taylor Swift and Tim McGraw)。The agreement indicates that Clear Channel plans to invest more in digital radio, the part of the industry that is growing. But unlike terrestrial broadcasters, digital stations are obliged by a 1998 law to pay fees to artists whenever a song is played. This skewed system has made life painful for digital platforms trying to build an audience, such as Pandora, which pays out more than half of its revenue in music royalties. ;We cant make business work online with these rates,; says Tim Westergren, founder and chief strategy officer of Pandora. His firm has spent ,000 this year lobbying Congress to change the law.这项协议表明,清晰频道计划增加它在数字广播上的投资,而正是数字广播在广播业中前景可观。但与地面广播公司不同的是,按照一项1998年的法律规定,无论何时,只要数字电台播出歌曲,它都必须向演唱者付费。这种扭曲的制度让试图招徕听众的数字平台日子很不好过;仅以潘多拉(Pandora)为例,它收入的一半以上都用于付音乐版权费。潘多拉的创建人、首席策略师蒂姆·威斯特格兰(Tim Westergren)说:;版税如此之高,我们没法开展在线业务。;他的公司今年已在游说国会修改法律上花了5万美元。Only 2% of Clear Channels listeners are digital and 98% terrestrial, so the deal looks costly. But Big Machine supplies only a small proportion of Clear Channels music. And paying a share of ad revenues hurts less than paying per song. The idea is to see what this does to the bottom line before negotiating with other labels.清晰频道的听众中只有2%来自数字广播,另外的98%来自地面广播,因此这项协议看上去代价很高。但大机器的节目在清晰频道播放的音乐中所占比例很小。而且,交出一部分广告收入比按歌付费轻松。清晰频道的打算是,先看看这项协议对净收入的影响后再与其他唱片公司谈判。The deal may also reflect anxiety on Clear Channels part. Its leveraged buy-out in 2008, just before the ad market collapsed, has left it heavily in hock. It has enough cash to keep things humming for a few years, but in 2016 debts of .1 billion fall due. The company will probably need a maturity extension. ;Theres no way to pay that,; says Melissa Link of Fitch, a ratings agency. ;They need growth.;这项协议可能也反映了清晰频道方面的担忧。2008年,它在广告市场崩溃前举债收购,这使之负债沉重。几年内它尚有足够的资金周转,但2016年有一笔121亿美元的债务到期。该公司或将需要延期偿债。惠誉评级公司(Fitch)的梅利莎·林克(Melissa Link)说:;钱他们肯定还不了,他们需要发展。;All eyes are now watching to see whether Clear Channel can make money from digital radio. It aly has iHeartRadio, an internet network launched in 2008, which relies on ads rather than subscriptions. In September 2011 the network began offering customisable playlists, like Pandora. It offers 11m songs, compared with Pandoras 900,000-but has only a tenth of its rivals listeners. The big source of growth is among smartphone buyers, who account for 70% of Pandoras streaming. Yet Pandora also relies heavily on advertising (only 10% subscribe), and mobiles have proven difficult for ad sales.人人都在关注清晰频道是否能通过数字电台赚钱。他们已在2008年开通了线上网站;网络电台;(iHeartRadio),该网站靠广告而不是靠听众付费赚钱。2011年9月;网络电台;开始像潘多拉一样提供可由听众点播的播放列表,表中包括1100万首歌。相比之下潘多拉的播放列表中只有90万首歌,但听众却是网络电台的10倍。智能电话的拥有者是发展听众的重大来源,他们占潘多拉听众的70%。但潘多拉对广告的依赖程度也很高(订阅收入仅占10%),而事实业已明,手机广告作用不明显。Second only to television in its reach, terrestrial radio does not face much of a threat from digital, especially given the royalty burden on digital providers. Air-wave radio has held on to listeners, because it remains free and convenient, particularly for car-bound commuters. Though carmakers are starting to integrate digital-radio platforms, streaming audio can eat up most mobile data plans. It is not expected to steal many listeners soon. But for artists, the Clear Channel deal has hit the right note.受众仅次于电视的地面电台没有受到数字电台的威胁,考虑到数字电台需要付出的高额版权使用费后尤其如此。无线电台能够抓住听众,因为它们的节目依旧免费,而且特别方便驾车上下班的人。尽管汽车制造商正开始在汽车收音机里添加数字无线电平台,但流式音频能击败大部分移动数据计划。人们认为流式音频还不会很快抢走大量听众,但对艺术家来说,清晰频道的协议效果良好。201208/195310
  • And then there is this PR headache for Apple. There have been allegations of extremely long working hours, underage employees and unsafe conditions at one of its biggest Chinese suppliers, Foxconn. Alison Kosik is at the New York stock exchange. Alison, what does Apple say about all this?苹果公司近日陷入公关危机,其在中国最大的代工厂富士康面临着工人超时工作,雇佣未成年人,工作环境不安全等指控。现在连线美国纽约券交易所的Alison Kosik。Alison,苹果对此有什么回应?Hey, Fredricka. So Apple is actually coming out defending its reputation. Its CEO Tim Cook spoke at a tech conference in California yesterday. He said Apple will not stand for any abuses at suppliers factories in China or anywhere else. Cook says the top priority is stopping suppliers from employing kids, in fact, hes calling that “a firing offense” now. But he did concede that there are instances of long working hours which is a violation of Apples work rules. Now this whole uproar, it actually goes back to 2010 when several Foxconn workers committed suicide. Since then, allegations of unsafe conditions have gotten louder and louder. Foxconn and other manufactures are currently being investigated this week by an independent labor group. That was actually brought in by Apple. Fredricka.嗨,Fredricka。其实苹果是在努力挽回名誉。苹果CEO蒂姆·库克昨日在加利佛利亚的技术研讨会上发言。他表示苹果不持在中国及其它地区的代工厂里发生任何劳工争议事件。库克说目前要把制止生产商雇佣童工放在首位。他称雇佣童工就是与其“解约”。但他承认确实存在工作时间长这个问题,这也违反了苹果的工作原则。目前的混乱局面,又让人忆起2010年富士康几名工人跳楼事件。从那时起,声讨工作环境不安全的呼声就越来越大。目前这星期,富士康还有其他的生产商正接受独立劳工协会的调查。而劳工协会正是由苹果公司引进的。So Alison, has this in any way kind of affected the bottom line for Apple?那么,Alison,那么这会不会从某些方面影响苹果的盈亏底线?And that was interesting. It hasnt. Apple has actually posted record iPad, iPhone and Mac sales last quarter and overall, you know, its shares are doing really well. Its shares are over 0, thats how they are trading these days. As for the overall market, its looking in the opening higher on word out of China, saying it will keep buying European bonds during its bid to help the debt situation in Europe, Fredricka.这问题很有趣。没有影响。苹果发布的iPad, iPhone and Mac的销售额创历史记录,总体上来说,你也知道,股市也相当给力。如今每股超过500美元,这就是苹果这些天的交易现状。至于总体市场方面,苹果把眼光放得更长远,不止注重在中国的舆论,据说苹果会在竞标期间一直在购买欧债,帮助缓解欧债危机,Fredricka。All right, Alison Kosik, thank you so much at the New York Stock Exchange.好了,非常感谢位于纽约券交易所的Alison Kosik。原文译文属!201206/188450
  • NOW almost five years old, the economic crisis rumbles on. In order to assess how much economic progress it has undone, The Economist has constructed a measure of lost time for hard-hit countries. It shows that Greecersquo;s economic clock has been turned back furthest: it has been rewound by over 12 years. Elsewhere in the euro area, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain have lost seven years or more. Britain, the first country forced to rescue a credit-crunched bank, has lost eight years. America, where the trouble started, has lost ten (see left-hand chart).经济危机与我们的如影相伴已经有5年时间了。为了了解它对经济发展造成的损失有多大,《经济学人》建立了一个衡量标准来显示那些经济危机严重的国家浪费了多少时间。我们可以看到希腊的经济退步最多:倒退了12年。欧洲的其他国家,爱尔兰、意大利、比利时和西班牙倒退了至少7年。英国,这第一个被迫向丧失偿还贷款信誉的伸援手的国家,经济也倒退了8年。美国,这一危机的始作俑者,倒退了10年(可见左边图表)。Our clock uses seven indicators of economic health, which fall into three broad categories. Household wealth and its main components, financial-asset prices and property prices, are in the first group. Measures of annual output and private consumption are in the second category. Real wages and unemployment make up the third. A simple average of how much time has been lost in each of these categories produces our overall measure.我们的这个度量表用到了经济健康发展的7个指标,可以分成三大类。家庭财富和其重要组成部分,金融资产和房产价格作为家庭财富的主要组成部分,算在第一组里。年产出和私人消费的分配时第二类。工资和失业人数是第三类。对三类损失的时间之和进行简单平均,就得出了我们总体的结论。Stockmarkets give some of the starkest results. American equities lost a quarter of their value in the month after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Shares are an important component of householdsrsquo; pension-fund wealth, and in that month alone five years of gains were eradicated. The main indices have improved markedly since then: the Samp;P 500 is back to around 90% of its peak value. But they were at these levels back in the late 1990s, too, so some investors will have made no capital gains in 13 years. Greek stocks were higher in 1992 than today: 20 years have been wiped away.股市更是将一些结果裸地摆在我们面前。美国股票市值在雷曼兄弟2008年9月垮台之后的一个月下降了25%。股票是当时家庭养老基金的重要组成部分,而在那一个月里,近五年的积蓄毁于一旦。从那以后,各大主要指数得到明显提高:标准普尔指数回到了其峰值的90%,但也只是达到了20世纪90年代末的水平,所以一些投资商将在未来13年内将没有资本收益。希腊股票1992年的市值要远比现在高:20年的时间就这么白白被抹去了。Recent performance is actually quite good from a historical perspective: five years on from both Wall Streetrsquo;s 1929 crash and Japanrsquo;s 1989 asset bust, equities were at just 50% of their peak values in real terms. But history also offers a warning: it took 25 years for American stocks to regain their 1929 highs and Japanese stocks have never made it back to their peak.从历史角度看最近的市场表现其实已经算不错了:在1929年华尔街危机和1989年日本的资产泡沫破裂后的5年,股票实值都只能达到峰值的一半。但是历史也发出警告:美国股市花了25年才重返1929年的高点,而日本股市却永远回不去了。House prices have gone backwards, too. The average American homeowner is living in 2001, judging by inflation-adjusted property values. Britain has suffered less dramatic drops in house prices, but has still lost seven years. The costs of this lost time are huge: British householdsrsquo; property wealth, in todayrsquo;s prices, is around pound;500 billion (5 billion) short of its peak; American households have lost a whopping .2 trillion.房价也走下坡路了。扣除通胀因素,一般的美国房主还像是生活在2001年。英国的房价下滑倒没有那么严重,不过也倒退了7年。倒退这几年的代价是惨重的:英国有房居民的房产价值,以现如今的价格来看,比峰值时少了5000亿英镑(7850亿美元);美国则丧失了庞大的92000亿美元。How quickly economies make up lost time will depend on where they have ceded ground. Some indicators may bounce back quickly: share prices are forward-looking measures of expected returns that are constantly being reassessed. Just as they can crash down they can jump back up, boosting wealth.经济恢复的快慢取决于它们在哪里反弹。一些指标可能会迅速反弹:股票价值就是对期望回报率不断地重新评估的前瞻性标尺。它们可以摔倒,也就能爬起来,继续向前。Other indicators are more sluggish. Measures of output tend to crawl, not jump. One such measure, nominal GDP, is a vital metric of governmentsrsquo; debt sustainability. Since debts are set at past values, growth and inflation tend to make the burden of borrowing more manageable; a shrinking economy makes the problem worse. There are 14 countries that have gone back in time, according to the nominal GDP indicator. This group includes eight members of the European Union, all of which have to repay their debts from an eroded tax base. Portugal and Spain have been sucked back to 2008 on this measure; Ireland was richer in 2006.另外一些指数就有些迟滞了。产出的走势是爬行的,而不是跳跃的。名义国民生产总值,这个指数就是对国家债务可持续性的重要度量工具。由于债务是以过去的值作为基准,借贷增加和通货膨胀会使借款的负担更容易得到控制;不过经济的下滑会使问题更严重。根据名义国民生产总值来看,有14个国家经济出现倒退,其中包括欧盟的8个成员国,这些国家需要靠不健全的计税基数来偿还贷款。葡萄牙和西班牙退回到2008年;爱尔兰则稍好于2006年。A different measure of GDP is needed to see how well consumers are doing. Inflation needs to be stripped out since it is higher output, not higher prices, that make people better off. Population growth also needs to be taken into account, since living standards are best measured on a per-person basis. Measured by real GDP per person a third of the 184 countries the IMF collects data for are poorer than they were in 2007. These 61 countries have each lost at least five years.我们需要用GDP的另一种衡量方式来评判消费者的生活水平。因为是高产出,而不是高物价才让百姓生活更好,所以我们应该剔除通货膨胀因素。人口增长也需要放入考虑范围之内,因为生活水平在个人基础上才能得到很好的体现。实际人均国民生产总值显示,世界货币基金组织在184个国家采集的数据中有三分之一都比在2007年的情况要差。这61个国家每个都退后了至少5年。The type and location of the economies still underwater on this measure are striking (see right chart). The EU has done very badly: 22 of its 27 members have lost time. Of the G7 group of large economies, only Germany has not gone backwards. The Caribbean and eastern Europe also have their fair share of submerged countries. Asia has performed much more strongly.以这一标准衡量所显现出经济体们的不同表现和地域差别是惊人的(可见右边图表)。欧盟的表现极其差劲:27个成员国中的22个经济都有倒退现象。经济大国组成的七国集团中,只有德国经济没有退步。加勒比海地区和东欧也在退步国家之列。只有亚洲的表现很优异。Our labour-market indicators provide more estimates of lost time. The OECD, a think-tank, publishes wage data for 25 rich countries. In ten of them real wages were lower in 2010 than previously, with four years lost on average by those that went backwards. Workers in Greece and Hungary had lost six years, with pay below its 2004 level.我们的劳动力市场指标提供了更多表现经济倒退的数据。智囊团;;经济合作与发展组织公布了25个发达国家的工资数据。其中的十个国家2010年的实际工资要比之前低,相当于平均倒退了4年。希腊和匈牙利的工人的工资倒退了6年,低于2004年的水平。Unlike income and GDP, there is no reason why unemployment statistics should improve year on year. But many advanced countries had managed to reduce joblessness to new lows in the years before 2007. The crisis blew all those gains away. In America the unemployment rate stands at 8.3% of the labour force, its 1983 level. In Britain it is at its worst for 17 years. In the euro area job prospects diverge hugely: unemployment is falling in Germany but Greece, Ireland and Portugal have joblessness rates not seen since the early 1990s (see bottom chart).收入和国民生产总值是逐年攀升,而失业率却没有得到改善的理由。虽然许多发达国家设法将失业率降低到2007年之前的新低,但经济危机让这些努力前功尽弃。在美国,失业率占到了劳动力的8.3%,相当于1983年的水平。在英国,则是17年最差劲水平。在欧元区,就业前景差距很大:德国的失业率下降,但在希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄牙,失业率都创下了20世纪90年代以来的新高(可见底部图表)。These measures are the most worrying of all. Growth will reset the economic clock, providing new jobs and the resources to pay down debts. The IMF predicts that in three years Italy will be the only G7 country with real GDP lower than in 2007. Within this group, America, which is aly growing again, is in a better position than Britain, which is not. But periods of unemployment scar workers even after economies have crawled back to health. For some, the time lost to the crisis will never be recovered.这些度量标准是最让人担忧的。发展将会通过提供工作岗位和资源还清债务,来重置经济周期。世界货币基金组织预计三年后,意大利将是七国集团中唯一一个实际国民生产总值低于2007年水平的国家。在这个集团中,经济已经重返发展轨道的美国会比英国更占优势。但是失业的时间即使在经济恢复后仍会给工人们造成损失。对于一些国家来说,经济危机给经济倒退带来的创伤将永远不会抚平。201203/173667
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