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楼主:华大夫 时间:2018年04月20日 09:31:09 点击:0 回复:0
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“I’m not a statistician,” says Bill James, a legendary statistician. He adds, “I’m also a very bad statistician. I’m sloppy, I’m impatient, I make mistakes and I don’t care about them.”“我不是统计学家,”具有传奇色的统计学家比尔#8226;詹姆斯(Bill James)称。他补充道:“我还是个非常糟糕的统计员。我粗心,没耐心,会出错误,而且我不以为意。”This “bad statistician” is arguably the father of today’s analytics revolution. In the 1970s, while minding the furnaces of a pork-and-beans plant in Kansas, he began to reinvent baseball stats. Data analysis has since sp everywhere from financial trading to political punditry. Recently James even applied analytics to serial killers.这位“糟糕的统计员”可谓是当今分析学革命之父。上世纪70年代,当詹姆斯还在堪萨斯(Kansas)操作一家猪肉炖豆厂的火炉时,他开始彻底改造棒球统计学。自此之后,数据分析推广至各个领域——从金融交易到政治。最近,詹姆斯甚至把分析学应用在了连环杀手身上。I met him earlier this month at the “sports summit” of the Dublin Web Summit, one of his rare ventures into public space. Twenty thousand techies were running around showing each other their apps. James, a plump and grey-bearded 65, was possibly the oldest person there and almost the only one wearing a suit. Scrunched awkwardly into an armchair, he looked much smaller than his 6ft 4in. He rarely meets your eye and often searches agonisingly for the right word. He’s short on “people skills”, he admits. But he has rethought the world using numbers.不久前,我在都柏林网络峰会(Dublin Web Summit)的“体育峰会”(sports summit)上遇到了在公众场合鲜有露面的詹姆斯。2万名技术高手在会场上穿梭,向彼此展示自己研发的应用软件。65岁的詹姆斯体态微胖,胡须斑白,可能是在场最为年长的人,也几乎是全场唯一穿西装的人。他别扭地挤在一把扶手椅上,看起来没有6英尺4英寸的身高那么魁梧。他很少与你眼神接触,说话时也经常痛苦地斟字酌句。他承认,自己不擅长“人际技巧”。不过,他借助数字重新思索这个世界。James could see things afresh partly because he was a born outsider. “My father was a small-town school janitor. I had that strong sense when I was young: I just didn’t have any innate talent for being nice to people. I’m not a type of person that academics were going to take under their wing. And it comes from the way I grew up and from being a contrarian. I just don’t naturally accept what I’m told.”詹姆斯能够以全新视角看待事物,部分原因在于他生来就是个局外人。“我的父亲是一所小镇学校的清洁工。我从小就有种很强的感觉:我就是没有对人客套的天赋。我不是学者会收入门下的那类人。这源自我成长之路,以及我与别人相反的思维。我就是不会轻易接受别人告诉我的事。”When he began studying baseball, he instinctively disbelieved the game’s received wisdom. He assembled new stats to show, for instance, that time-honoured baseball strategies like bunting or base-stealing were dumb. He says, “My skill was seeing new things that people weren’t measuring but that we could measure.” In short, the bad statistician had imagination.当开始研究棒球时,他本能地对有关棒球赛的公认智慧产生了怀疑。例如,他收集了新的数据来明,像短打或盗垒这种由来已久的棒球策略都是不明智的。他称:“我的能力在于看到别人不在衡量、而我们可以衡量的新参数。”简言之,这位糟糕的统计员富有想象力。He had also chosen the right topic. Baseball began collecting game stats early. By the time computers became widely available, it had 100 years of numbers waiting to be crunched. James says, “The analytic revolution hit in baseball before it did in finance, for example, and that made baseball sort of a paradigm of how this works.” It’s no accident that today’s leading political number-cruncher, Nate Silver, began as a baseball statistician.他还会选择合适的研究对象。棒球很早便开始收集比赛数据。当计算机变得普及时,这项运动已经有了100年的数据等待研究。詹姆斯称:“在应用于金融之前,分析学的革命便已在棒球界展开,这使得棒球在某种程度上成为分析学应用的范例。”并非偶然的是,当今顶尖的政治数据分析师纳特#8226;西尔弗(Nate Silver)是棒球统计员出身。James had another useful attribute for a revolutionary: good prose. Quite simply, he is an astonishingly skilled writer of non-fiction. In 1977 he self-published his first photocopied, stapled Baseball Abstract. His style – American vernacular wrapped in formal grammar – soon sp his fame. I currently cannot stop ing his 2011 book, Popular Crime. His insights pour out: serial killers are almost always thieves, too; men who murder their wives are typically having an affair; a secret-service agent startled by Lee Harvey Oswald’s shots probably accidentally fired the bullet that killed John F Kennedy.詹姆斯还有另外一点身为革命者的有利特质:写得一手好文章。很简单,他是一名天赋异禀的非小说作家。1977年,他自己出版了第一本用复印机和订书机装订成册的书——《棒球汇编》(Baseball Abstract)。他的风格——在正规语法包装下的美式白话——迅速使其声名鹊起。最近,我对他2011年所著的《热门罪案》(Popular Crime)爱不释手。他的见解如行云流水般道来:连环杀手几乎也都是窃贼;杀妻者通常都有婚外情;在听到李#8226;哈维#8226;奥斯瓦尔德(Lee Harvey Oswald)的声后在惊恐之下意外扣动扳机的一名特勤局(Secret Service)特工,很可能射出了打死约翰#8226;肯尼迪(John F Kennedy)的那发子弹。When I ask James for his literary inspirations, he names economists: Paul Samuelson, Robert Fogel and “early writers in econometrics”. Good analysts tend to make good writers, he explains.当我问及詹姆斯的文学启蒙时,他说出了几名经济学家的名字:保罗#8226;萨缪尔森(Paul Samuelson)、罗伯特#8226;福格尔(Robert Fogel)以及几个“计量统计学的早期著述者”。他解释称,优秀的统计学家倾向于成为好作家。James remained an outsider for decades. Had he never been recognised, he admits, “It would have eaten me away. I’d have been bitter and sarcastic, like when I was young.” But gradually insiders began paying attention. One early er was a commodities trader named John W Henry. Later Henry bought the Boston Red Sox. Now James advises the club on baseball matters: “Should we sign this player? Should we use this player in this way?” James has also helped statisticians from Henry’s English football club, Liverpool.詹姆斯保持局外人的身份达数十年。他承认,如果从未获得认可,“那会让我极度失落。我会变得愤世嫉俗、尖酸刻薄,就像我年轻时那样。”不过,圈内人逐渐开始关注他。詹姆斯的早期读者中有一位名为约翰#8226;W#8226;亨利(John W Henry)的大宗商品交易商。不久后,亨利买下了波士顿红袜队(Boston Red Sox)。如今,詹姆斯是该俱乐部棒球事务的顾问:“我们应该签这名球员吗?我们可以这样用这名球员吗?”詹姆斯还为亨利的英格兰足球俱乐部——利物浦(Liverpool)的统计员提供帮助。#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;……Almost every big sports club now employs a team of Jamesian analysts. However, the big decisions are still made by smartly dressed executives. James admits he couldn’t do their job. “You need a lot better people skills than I have. I don’t carry a phone. I don’t understand how people who carry a phone can get any work done.”如今,几乎所有的大型体育俱乐部都聘请了一个詹式分析师团队。然而,重大决定仍然由西装笔挺的经理们做出。詹姆斯承认,他做不了经理的工作。“那需要比我出色得多的人际交往能力。我不随身携带手机。我不明白带手机的人怎么能完成工作。”Still, the outsider has finally become an American success. “I’m very pleased,” he admits. “In a sense I won my argument with the world. The world has been very good to me – as an adult, not when I was a child.话说回来,这位局外人最终成为了一个美国标杆。“我很高兴,”他坦白道,“在某种意义上,我向世界明了自己的论点。世界对我不错,当然这是在我成年之后,在我小时候并非如此。”“I’ve gagged on the fallacies of all organised systems of thought.” But he has ended up creating his own organised system of thought: baseball analytics, known as “sabermetrics”. He invented today’s conventional wisdom. Surely that discomfits him? “A lot of organised sabermetrics doesn’t work,” replies James.“所有思想组织体系的谬论让我作呕。”不过,他最终创造了自己的思想组织体系:棒球分析学,即“赛伯计量学”(sabermetrics)。他发明了如今的传统智慧。难道这不会困扰他吗?“赛伯计量学的很多理论不管用,”詹姆斯回答称。“A lot of it’s bullshit. What we don’t know is always – in my own view – a million times bigger than what we do. There will never be a shortage of ignorance.”“很多都是胡扯。在我认为,我们不知道的事总是远远超过我们知道的事。这世界永远不会缺少无知。”And he includes himself in that. Bill James is contrarian even about Bill James. Michael Lewis’s book Moneyball lionises him; James, possibly uniquely among sports statisticians, hasn’t it. “I think that I’m in no sense a phony,” he says, “I think I don’t pretend to be anything I’m not. However, a lot of what people say about me isn’t true. I’m not smarter than anybody.”而他也把自己归入其中。比尔#8226;詹姆斯甚至是自己的反派。迈克尔#8226;刘易斯(Michael Lewis)所著的《魔球》(Moneyball)对他评价甚高;而詹姆斯很可能是唯一一个没有读过该书的体育统计学家。“我觉得我决不是冒牌货,”他称,“我认为我从不会假装成其他人。不过,别人口中的我有很多不是真的。我不比任何人聪明。”Then, to his immense relief, I let him go.然后,我让他离开了,这对他来说是个极大的解脱。 /201503/365709The image of a police officer is spray-painted on a wall at Sohofama, a Chinese restaurant in Hong Kong that sticks to its blue-collar roots with home-style dishes served on outdoor wooden tables and benches. The picture pays homage to both a founder’s father, a local officer, and the establishment’s location at PMQ, a 1950s “Police Married Quarters” that once housed hundreds of families and is now home to dozens of restaurants, studios and boutiques run by local artisans and designers, including Vivienne Tam.“料理农务”(Sohofama)是一家香港家常菜中餐馆,露天的木头桌椅保持了蓝领作风,其中一面墙上喷绘着一个警察的肖像,这是为了纪念一位创始人的父亲,他也是一位当地的官员,此外也是为了纪念“元创方”(PMQ)的原址。20世纪50年代,这里曾是“已婚警察宿舍”,住有几百个警察家庭,如今这里开着数十个餐馆、工作室和精品店,由本地艺术家与设计师们经营,其中还包括谭燕玉(Vivieene Tam)。The revitalized PMQ complex — two midrise buildings set around a large central courtyard — takes up a whole city block on the western edge of Soho, a rapidly gentrifying neighborhood where art galleries and French bistros are next to working-class shops and apartments. The postwar complex sat vacant for decades but reopened last April as a center for art and culture after a renovation of 400 million Hong Kong dollars (more than million). Its 100-plus units have been snapped up by tenants who have quickly made PMQ one of the most popular scenes in town.重生的“元创方”是围绕着一个大中心广场的两栋中等高度的建筑,它位于Soho区西部边缘,占据了一整片街区,这是一个品味迅速提升的地方,画廊和法餐厅混杂在工薪阶层的公寓及店铺之间。这里修建于“二战”之后,闲置了几十年,去年四月经重修后作为艺术与文化中心重新开放,修缮费约为4亿港币(合5千万多美元)。楼中的100多个单元被抢租一空,租户们很快令“元创方”成为香港最受欢迎的一景。The original structures, including their large balconies, were retained, said William To, the center’s creative director.元创方的设计师陶威廉(William To)说,许多当初的建筑特征都得以保留,比如巨大的阳台。“At that time, people had outdoor kitchens and communal areas where families ate together,” he said. “It was a close community.”“当时这里有户外厨房和公共区域,几家人可以在一起吃饭,”他说,“这是一个关系亲密的社区。”The new PMQ preserves that feeling of openness through the generous use of shared and alfresco spaces. The courtyard has been covered in a glass canopy so that it can be used for large-scale art installations, fairs, festivals and popular weekend food nights with plenty of beer and street snacks.新的“元创方”采用大量共享与户外空间,保持了这种开放性。院子用玻璃顶棚遮蔽,因此可以用来陈设大规模艺术装置,举办艺术展、艺术节,以及受欢迎的周末美食之夜,售卖啤酒和路边摊食品。Since the heritage site’s reopening, these establishments — from cozy bakeries to high-end restaurants — have joined a buzzing dining scene in Hong Kong, a city with nearly 14,000 food outlets, 88 Michelin stars sparkling among 64 restaurants, high rents and some of the world’s pickiest eaters.这里的餐饮业从舒适的面包房到高级餐厅应有尽有,自“元创方”重开以来,它们也迅速融入了香港繁荣的美食景观。这座城市有近14000家饭馆,88颗米其林之星在64个高档饭馆门前闪耀,不时有世界上最挑剔的食客大驾光临。Sohofama focuses on organic and — as far as is possible in this concrete jungle — local ingredients. While the restaurant makes a few forays into fusion cuisine — chorizo fried rice and black truffle “xiao long bao,” soup dumplings — it mostly serves simple, homey dishes. Lunch is about 114 Hong Kong dollars a person, or at 7.60 Hong Kong dollars to the U.S. dollar; dinner is about 190 dollars. Most diners order small dishes to share: chilled cucumber slices, vegetable rice, fried fish with corn sauce, sweet and sour pork, scallion pancakes, buns stuffed with minced meat and a whole crab in a clay pot. At night, a mix of artsy residents and visitors sip cocktails infused with sour plums, orange peel and hibiscus flowers.在这座钢筋水泥丛林里,“料理农务”还是尽量使用有机食品与本地原料。餐厅尝试了若干融合菜肴,诸如西班牙辣香肠炒饭和黑松露小笼包、馄饨,但主要还是提供简单的家常菜。午饭每人约需114港元(按7.60港元兑换1美元,约合15美元);晚饭每人约需190港元。大部分食客都会点些小菜来分食,比如黄瓜片、蔬菜饭、玉米酱炸鱼、叉烧肉、葱饼、肉夹馍和砂锅蟹。晚间常常会有颇具艺术气质的本地居民与游客特来品尝掺加了酸梅、橙皮与芙蓉花的鸡尾酒。Hong Kong’s British colonial heritage permeates Aberdeen Street Social, a two-story bar and restaurant that is one of several collaborations around town between Jason Atherton, a Michelin-starred British chef, and Yenn Wong, a Singaporean heiress and hotelier. Their cocktails include the most appalling British puns: Just Beet-Root to Me, Bitters amp; Twisted, Pretty Fly for a Mai Tai and Pot Pouring Ketel Black.Aberdeen Street Social这样的地方颇具香港英殖民时期的遗风,这是一个两层的酒吧兼餐厅,是英国米其林星级厨师杰森·阿瑟顿(Jason Atherton)与新加坡女继承人兼酒店经营者Yenn Wong合作的结晶,两人在香港其他地点还有若干合作餐厅。这里的鸡尾酒名字里包含了最吓人的英国双关语:“Just Beet-Root to Me”(意为“对我粗鲁”与“甜菜根”谐音——译注)、“Bitters amp; Twisted”(必打士与变态),“Pretty Fly for a Mai Tai”(Mai Tai酒里的漂亮苍蝇)和“Pot Pouring Ketel Black”(波特浇黑坎特)。The terrace has a casual vibe, serving upscale gastro-pub grub: truffle popcorn, flatbs, savory pies and a salad made with Peking duck. But the upstairs restaurant is a full-on dining experience — with French-speaking staff and fine wines — that impressed even my picky husband, a chef. In one standout dish, a duck breast (266 dollars) swam in a blood-red beetroot sauce thickened with honey and spice. A bite into what looked innocuously like a glazed cherry turned out to be a duck heart on a spear, a happy surprise.楼下充满休闲气息,提供高档酒吧美食:松露爆米花、小面包干、风味派和北京烤鸭沙拉。但楼上的餐厅就完全是正餐的天下——侍者说法语、供应高档红酒——我丈夫是一位颇为挑剔的大厨,见此也颇为触动。一道鸭胸肉(266港元)格外美味,鸭肉浸在浓稠血红、混有蜂蜜与香料的甜菜根酱汁中。旁边配有看似完全无害,宛如玻璃樱桃的装饰,吃一口才知道是鸭心,堪称意外惊喜。Visitors should be warned that any request for a hot caffeinated beverage on a weekday morning will be met with a bleary-eyed barista just getting to work. B n Butter, a crepe place inside a pink-festooned women’s boutique, manages to get going by 11 a.m. By noon, you can have coffee from fresh-roasted beans at Café Life, pastries at the hippie-ish Alice Wild Luscious and homemade b at Levain Bakery.游客要注意的是,在工作日的上午点任何含咖啡因的热饮都有可能遭到刚来上班的侍者白眼。“面包与黄油”(B n Butter)是一家精致的小店,隐藏在一家专售点缀粉红花边的女装店之内,上午11点就开张了。到中午时分,你可以在“咖啡生活”(Café Life)享受新鲜的现磨咖啡,在嬉皮风格的“Alice Wild Luscious”享受糕点,在“Levain Bakery”享受家制面包。PMQ gets livelier later in the day, especially on the weekends. On a recent weekday afternoon Isono, a 4,000-square-foot tapas restaurant, was filled with creative types tapping away on laptops. From noon to midnight, customers snack on sharing platters of Ibérico ham, pheasant terrine, duck rillettes and, for visiting Americans, passable sliders. Serious epicures head upstairs to the adjoining fine dining restaurant, Vasco.下午时分,元创方才会变得更有活力,特别是在周末。最近的一个下午,占地4000平方英尺的小吃店Isono里挤满了敲笔记本的创意人士。从下午到午夜,他们用公用的大盘子吃着伊比利克火腿、砂锅野鸡、鸭肉酱以及对于美国游客而言味道尚可的迷你汉堡。认真的老饕们会上楼,到高档的Vasco餐厅享用大餐。Mr. To demurred when asked which restaurant was his favorite. But he said even the pricier ones are doing well.被问到自己最喜欢哪家餐厅,陶先生表示无法回答。但他说,就算最便宜的餐馆也很棒。“They are constantly full and now it’s difficult to get a table on the weekends, even for us,” he said.“那些地方经常满座,现在到了周末,就连我们也很难订到位子,”他说。 /201504/368579Heqing Royal Liquor鹤庆乾酒 There is a fairly legendary mystery denoting the origin of Heqing (A county in Northwestern part of Yunnan province) Royal Wine. It is said that when Emperor Qianlong inspected the southern areas of the Yangtze River, during one feast, his Majesty was presented with the locally produced Liquor of West Dragon Pond (A pond in Heqing County), which was refreshing with a flavor of natural herbs. After a taste, his Majesty, who has enjoyed the world’s most delicious liquors and wines, praised: “What splendid liquor! Even an alcohol master could not have produced such a heavenly drink.” Under his order it became a tribute which was delivered to him on a regular basis. The wine thus adopted the name of Royal Liquor, which means that it was specifically attributed to Emperor Qianlong.鹤庆乾酒的来历,在民间还有一段颇具传奇色和神秘意韵的故事,这酒据说是乾隆老儿下江南那阵子,在一次晚宴上,品了鹤庆出产的西龙潭酒后,觉得味道醇厚中,有一股子清冽冽的感觉;回甜中,有一种山野的清香。那品遍了天下美味琼浆的乾隆老儿,品了一口后,居然啧啧称赞道:“这真是天下少有的美酒啊!杜康在世,也未必能酿出这般美酒。”于是就将这种酒,御封为每年进贡朝庭的贡品,定期按时呈贡。这酒名也就取成了乾酒,言下之意,这酒的专利拥有者,就他乾隆老儿了。 /201504/371738

Chinese cuisine is noted for the following characteristics:中国菜肴具有以下有名的特点:Vegetables are the main ingredients.蔬菜是主要配料。This explains why most Chinese women are slim and men free of cardiovascular diseases. This is because in China an there is a traditional respell for land. As the old saying goes agricultural country,Live on the mountain if you live in one and live on water if you live by water.”The Chinese are meticulous about food preparation. Whether the ingredients they use are pastries or vegetables,they always try to make the dishes tasty. For example,beans,a tommon vegetable,are exquisitely prepared into such delicious dishes as bean sprouts and bean curd.这就是中国妇女十分苗条而男子不用担心得心血管疾病的原因。中国作为一个农业国家,对土地有着传统的敬仰。正如一句老话所说的:“靠山吃山,靠水吃水。”中国人对于食物的烹制十分讲究。无论是糕点还是蔬菜,他们总是力图将其做得美味可口。例如,豆子这种普通的蔬菜就精致地做成了诸如豆芽和豆腐等美味的菜肴。The Chinese people like well prepared food.中国人喜欢精心烹制的食物。To facilitate food absorption and digestion,they are scrupulous about the temperature while cooking. Undercooked food is unacceptable to them. To the Chinese,the sight of Westerners eating undercooked steaks still oozing blood inside is horrible. In addition,warm soup is very important. Wonton,or dumpling soup,and noodles are popular nationwide. Other hot soups include jellied bean curd,rice porridge and corn porridge.为了便于食物的消化和吸收,中国人注重烹饪时的温度。对于他们来说,没有烧熟的食物是难以下咽的。当中国人看到外国人吃着渗着血的半熟牛排时会觉得十分恶心。此外,热汤也是极为重要的。馄饨汤或饺子汤以及面条都在全国深受欢迎。其他热汤包括豆腐脑、米粥以及玉米粥。Chinese also like to eat together,a tradition that can be traced back a long time ago.中国人还喜欢在一起吃饭,这个传统可以追溯到很久之前。It reflects the Chinese notion of union versus division round tables,round dishes,and round bowls all syriibolize union and perfection. Dishes are usually placed at the center of the table so that everyone around the table can share them. A hot pot, in particular, adds to the atmosphere of harmony and union. Friends eat and live together. A recent book by an American Sinologist held that the Chinese collective tradition developed out of the practice of eating together.这反映出中国人喜欢团圆不愿分离的观念—圆桌、圆盘、还有圆碗都象征着团圆和美满。盘子通常放在桌子的中央,这样坐在桌子面前的所有人都可以吃得到。一锅热汤尤其可以增加和谐、团圆的气氛。朋友们在一起吃饭、生活。最近一位美国汉学家的著作认为,中国人的集体观念就是从一同吃饭发展而来的。 /201506/378438

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